Competing effects of aerosol reductions and circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze

Abstract. Despite local emission reductions, severe haze events remain a serious issue in Beijing. Previous studies have suggested that both greenhouse gas increases and aerosol decreases are likely to increase the frequency of weather patterns conducive events. However, combined effect atmospheric circulation changes precursor on Beijing remains unclear. We use Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) explore effects itself. confirm occurrence is future under all SSPs show even though reductions play small role, main driver, especially during second half 21st century. severity decadal timescales by as much 70 % 2100. The influence itself emissions, which outweigh patterns. This demonstrates beneficial, despite their circulation.